Heathrow’s £21 Billion Third Runway Could Finally Let EasyJet Take On British Airways And Shake Up the Status Quo

Heathrow Airport says it can build a third runway for just £21 billion (US$27.1 billion) and complete construction within the next 10 years as part of revived plans to expand what is already the busiest airport in Europe.

On Friday, the airport announced that it had submitted its ‘shovel-ready’ proposals for the new runway to Britain’s Labour government, which is keen to finally get the controversial project over the finish line.

Delayed for decades, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has publicly stated that he wants construction on the new runway to get underway within the next three years at the latest, meaning that Heathrow could get its long-awaited third runway by 2035.

Plans For The Third Runway

Heathrow plans to go ahead with a runway design and layout that has been previously approved by Parliament. The runway will be 3,500 meters long and will stretch north west over the current airfield.

Not only will the runway require the demolition of a centuries-old village and other housing developments, but it will also run across the M25 motorway, which is Britain’s busiest road.

The runway design would require a tunnel to be carved under the runway, but Heathrow says the project will be 100% privately financed, increasing capacity to 756,000 flights and 150 million passengers per year.

The north-west third runway would be shorter than Heathrow’s two existing parallel runways, and chief executive Thomas Woldbye says the airport is open to slashing the length still further to around 3,000 meters if it makes getting planning permission easier.

The reason isn’t just to keep construction costs down (although this is an important point given that the estimated cost to build the runway has already skyrocketed by 50% on how much it would have cost to build in 2018 when Heathrow was last seeking permission to push the project forward).

Instead, Heathrow would primarily use the third runway for short-haul flights on smaller aircraft that require less runway length for takeoff and landing.

Total Cost Could Balloon To £48 Billion

While the cost of building the third runway will be around £21 billion, the total cost of the expansion project could balloon to at least £48 billion, with new terminals required to be built to deal with all the extra passengers and planes that the new runway will provide capacity for.

Heathrow’s expansion masterplan includes the construction of a brand new terminal known as Terminal 5X, which will be located just south of the third runway and connected to the main Terminal 5 building via an underground train system.

In previous plans, it was envisioned that T5X would be primarily used for short-haul flights, ideally situated right next to the third runway (that will be used for short-haul flights), thereby minimising taxi times and emissions.

Upgrades to Existing Terminal Buildings

Elsewhere, Heathrow plans to finally expand Terminal 2 – the newest terminal, which, despite looking complete, was only actually ever half built when work was stopped in 2014.

The main terminal building will double in size and then, taking over the site where the now derelict Terminal 1 sits. A third satellite pier will also be constructed, and all of the terminal buildings will finally be linked via an underground train system (rather than the existing walkways).

Once Terminal 2 is complete, the sprawling Terminal 3 building will finally be shuttered.

But while Heathrow says it can complete work on the actual runway within 10 years, the timeline for completion of the additional terminals and train systems is a lot more fluid, with Heathrow stating it could be ‘decades’ before all this work is completed.

What Heathrow Says About Its Plans

On Friday, Thomas Woldbye commented: “It has never been more important or urgent to expand Heathrow. We are effectively operating at capacity to the detriment of trade and connectivity.”

“With a green light from Government and the correct policy support underpinned by a fit-for-purpose regulatory model, we are ready to mobilise and start investing this year in our supply chain across the country.”

Airlines Aren’t So Keen About Heathrow’s Expansion Plans

With Heathrow operating at capacity and planes flying more full than ever, you would have thought that airlines would be incredibly keen to get this project off the ground. That is, however, far from the case.

Many carriers that already have a strong presence at Heathrow are quite happy with the constrained capacity they can take advantage of with higher ticket prices, while airlines are afraid that Heathrow will hike its already extortionate landing fees still higher to pay for the project.

Take British Airways, for example. Through a series of mergers and acquisitions throughout the years, the airline controls the lion’s share of take-off and landing ‘slots’ at Heathrow.

A third runway could finally open up Heathrow to the kind of competition that BA hasn’t had to deal with in many years, including from the likes of low-cost rivals like EasyJet, whose chief executive, Kenton Jarvis, confirmed on Friday that the airline plans to fly from Heathrow “at scale” once the third runway is open.

Will The Third Runway Get Off The Ground This Time?

We’ve been here before. Many times, in fact. Heathrow has had grand plans to build a third runway for decades, and each time construction has even got remotely close to getting underway, legal challenges and political infighting that pushed back the project for many years at a time.

Is this time different? Maybe. Heathrow has already fought many of the legal challenges that could delay the project, although the airport still has to get through the planning permission phase.

At that point, there could still be last-minute legal challenges from residents who will be evicted to make way for the runway, or from Londoners afraid of increased noise pollution.

Expect Heathrow to also become a flashpoint for environmental protestors, despite new laws that were designed to prevent the kinds of mass disruption that have previously been seen at the airport.

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