On February 24, 2022, the skies over Ukraine emptied of commercial passenger jets as President Putin ordered Russian troops to launch a full-scale invasion of its neighbor. More than four years later, flights remain completely grounded, and Ukraine’s airports deserted.
With no end in sight to the conflict and even a temporary ceasefire remaining elusive, it would seem as if Ukraine’s aviation sector will have to remain in limbo for the foreseeable future… or, maybe not.
The country is now establishing a special working group to prepare for the resumption of commercial flights and reopening of at least some of Ukraine’s airports.
The order to establish the working group was signed last week by Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for reconstruction, Olekssi Kuleba, although few other details have been made public at this time.
What we do know is that the group plans to involve stakeholders from across the aviation industry and specialist agencies such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Air Transportation Association (IATA) to discuss how airspace can be safely reopened.
It’s believed that Ukraine might start with a very limited reopening of airspace, targeting the resumption of flights from Lviv, which is close to the border with Poland, thereby reducing the risk from Russian missiles or kamikaze drones.
There is, however, talk that the Ukrainian government would really want to see Boryspil International Airport reopened, given its proximity to Kyiv.
The big problem with that is Kyiv comes under frequent fire from Russian projectiles, which would significantly increase risks. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has, though, previously said he would like to see Boryspil Airport reopen first.
No doubt, decision makers will be looking at the unfolding situation in the Middle East, where several countries have faced crippling airspace closures as a result of Iranian missile and drone attacks.
While Bahrain and Kuwait have kept all flights grounded since February 28, authorities in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have established what they refer to as ‘safe air corridors’ to keep commercial flights operating.
In particular, Dubai International Airport (DXB) has progressively added more and more flights, although not without some pretty big setbacks.
Earlier this week, a fuel tank at Dubai Airport was struck by an Iranian drone, causing a large fire that disrupted air traffic for a number of hours. Surprisingly, however, flights were quickly allowed to resume, and Emirates Airline continues to rebuild its schedule.
In 2023, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary made a surprise visit to Ukraine and met with key officials in Kyiv, before heading to Boryspil International Airport to inspect the state of the airport, including baggage claim and passenger check-in and boarding gate areas.
O’Leary said at the time that Ryanair was prepared to pump $3 million in investment to rebuild Ukraine’s commercial aviation industry. Ryanair would “change back” to Ukraine as soon as it was safe to do so, adding up to five million seats to and from the country within the first 12 months of airspace reopening.
This isn’t, however, the first time that Ukrainian officials have talked up the idea of reopening airspace to commercial flights. In 2023 and 2024, there were suggestions that airspace could be reopened in the near future, although on both occasions, the talk never amounted to anything.
Could 2026 be different?
