Local authorities in Dubai have banned foreign airlines from operating more than just one daily flight to the city until May 31 at the earliest, citing capacity constraints as the lion’s share of new takeoff and landing slots are given to its own airlines, Emirates and FlyDubai.
The ban has been in place for weeks and was initially described as a safety protocol due to the threat of Iranian missile and kamikaze drone strikes that forced airlines to use so-called ‘safe air corridors’ that severely limited capacity.
Now that a ceasefire has taken effect with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) recording no new incursions by Iranian projectiles, the flight cap remains in force, according to reporting by Reuters.
According to a private letter sent by Dubai Airports to foreign carriers, they will only be allowed to operate one daily round-trip flight to Dubai International Airport (DXB) and one daily round-trip flight to Dubai World Central Airport (DWC).
The capacity cap is merely academic to European and North Atlantic carriers that have extended flight cancellations to Dubai until June and beyond, but some airlines in the Middle East and India are desperate to rebuild capacity to the emirate.
The Federation of Indian Airlines, which represents some of the biggest carriers in the country, has reportedly called on the Indian government to intervene, either to convince officials in Dubai to ease the cap on foreign airlines or, if needed, slap Emirates and FlyDubai with reciprocal capacity caps.
India is one of the most important international markets for Dubai, with 11.9 million passengers from India passing through Dubai airports in 2025 – the largest country market by far.
Emirates is currently flying multiple flights per day to several cities in India, including Delhi and Mumbai.
While Dubai is a popular destination in itself for Indian travelers, many passengers also just use the city to transit through to other long-haul destinations in Europe and North America.
European carriers are now shifting capacity towards India, helping travelers completely bypass the Middle East, while the threat of war lingers. On Thursday, British Airways became the latest international airline to reassign its fleet from the Persian Gulf to India, adding a second daily flight to Bengaluru from June 1.
What we don’t know yet is whether these capacity shifts will become a long-term trend or whether Persian Gulf airlines will be able to steal back passengers who are currently looking at alternative long-haul routings.
For many travelers, the decision could come down to cost. Passengers will have to pay a hefty premium for more direct routings that avoid the Middle East, while Gulf carriers are luring travelers with big discounts.
The big unknown is whether the existing two-week ceasefire will turn into an enduring peace deal. The deciding factor could be what happens with the movements of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United Arab Emirates has indicated that it is incredibly unhappy with any peace deal that allows Iran to charge tolls through the Strait or that would allow it to effectively hold it hostage.
