The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that Europe may have just six weeks of jet fuel left, raising fears of mass flight cancellations and huge travel disruption on a scale not seen since early 2020, when the aviation industry was all but grounded due to pandemic-era restrictions.
In an interview with the AP news agency in Paris, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol went on the record to say that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left.”
Europe gets most of its jet fuel supply from Persian Gulf refineries. The supply of jet fuel from the Middle East to Europe has been cut off since February 28, when Iran shuttered the Strait of Hormuz in response to joint US and Israeli strikes on the country.
Until this point, jet fuel supply to the continent has not been too badly affected because there were already ships in transit loaded with jet fuel and destined for Europe for the conflict started.
Nontheless, some airlines, including Scandanavian carrier SAS, have already started to cancel some flights to conserve jet fuel supplies. Earlier this week, British Airways confirmed it was cancelling and merging flights on high-frequency short-haul routes. The airline said the cancellations were “routine adjustments.”
Other airlines have, though, been more open about the prospect of disruption should tankers remain blockaded in the Strait of Hormuz for much longer.
Ryanair has already raised the threat of Summer flight cancellations should jet fuel supplies to Europe be disrupted for much longer, although European lawmakers have moved to reassure worried travelers.
Birol described the developing situation in the Middle East as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.” Even once the Strait is reopened, Birol said it could take many months for fuel supplies to steady.
Given the extent of Iranian missile and kamikaze drone attacks on oil infrastructure across the Gulf, production could be hampered, and repairs to these facilities will take a long time.
“I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel,” Birrol added in his interview with AP.
Despite a two-week ceasefire which remains in force, the US has now enforced its own blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, with no sign that a deal could be in the works to get shipping moving again.
Jet fuel supplies are also a concern in other regions of the world, notably Asia and Australia, where there have been similar warnings that oil could run out unless there is a breakthrough at some point very soon.
